Dollar Up Equals Gold Slightly Off

The American dollar is up and if you’ve been following along, you know what that means: the long ascending path of gold has stalled for a bit.

For the last several weeks, there has been a media campaign by the new administration of U.S. President Barack Obama to bring hope to American consumers.   He’s done several interviews, had a news conference, and talked about it at every step.  His Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner as well as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, have both been up to Capitol Hill to answer questions, trying to restore faith in the economy.   Consumer confidence is, of course, one of the key factors in any economic recovery.  Others being unemployment, the stock market, and a strong dollar abroad.   And there’s a tough road ahead on the way to recovery.

Unemployment is still soaring.  Government experts have commented that those figures may continue to spike upwards through the rest of this year and into 2010.  But if you talk to the average unemployed person on the street, you can hear varied answers from “oh, it’ll all be fine, once these government programs get underway and they start hiring,” to the sheer panic caused by unemployment that has gone on too long.

But we will recover.  And how do we know this?  Because of consumer confidence, as indicated by personal spending, which rose a modest 0.2% in February, according to the Commerce Department.   This followed a revised 1.0% increase in January, which had to be revised to reflect that growth after earlier estimates went astray.  These tiny little increases were all predicted by government economists.

At the same time, personal income edged downward by o.2%, which is re-couping the same amount that it gained in January.  So the see-saw action continues in American wallets.

Also in gold prices.  The price went soaring upwards in the midweek, but then spiraled downward again on Friday.  And where gold had been selling for $1000 per ounce earlier this year (and well in advance of earlier predictions that it would hit that range around October to November) it is now trending downward around the $940 range.

We’re going to expect this for some months to come.   The government’s top money talkers haven’t said to expect anything other than a difficult year ahead.   President Obama has not suggested that smoothing out the economic numbers will be easy.  Or soon.  But it will get there.

Gold Standard – Part II

Last week we talked about the Gold Standard, which was when the United States government guaranteed each gold-backed American dollar in circulation.

With the current economic contraction that is underway, some people are positing the notion that returning to the gold standard would help.  But the reality is that the gold standard contributed to the Great Depression.

A currency is only as good as the government’s credibility that backs it up.  Sticking with the gold standard?   If a government goes on, then off, then on again,well, you can see that credibility is quickly lost.  And historically, that is what countries have done.

In the years after World War I, many countries had suspended convertibility of gold during the war, and then stayed of gold.  They experienced fiscal chaos as speculators moved in and wildly fluctuating monetary policies robbed citizens of stability needed to rebuild.

But counting on a gold standard, in a fiscally unstable market, when investors, speculators and citizenry doubt governments’ ability to keep to that standard was edging too close to the cliff.

International capital flows became more erratic, not less, as doubts were raised about whether first the pound, then the dollar.

Britain lost ground under these speculative attacks and released its gold standard in 1931.  The U.S. toughed it deliberately raising interest rates in the same year, when the economy was already in near free fall.  The resulting damage to the economy is well known.

The longer a country stuck to the gold standard, the more overall deflation it experienced. Many experts are persuaded that this deflation greatly added to the economic difficulties of those countries that insisted on sticking with a fixed value of their currency in terms of gold.  It got worse, not better.

The bottom line is if buying gold is your standard for maintaining economic stability, then let it continue to be your standard.  As for a return to the gold standard, that is unlikely and probably ill advised.

Gold Surpasses $1,000 on Fears of Inflation

Fears fomented by long-term inflationary concerns over President Obama’s huge stimulus package drove investors to gold as a hedge against likely devaluation of the U.S. dollar.

Historically, the price of gold has been intimately wed to the value of the U.S. dollar. This was not difficult to predict. As the dollar loses value, gold gains it. It’s a time-honored maxim, set into motion when about a century ago, on March 14, 1900, the U.S. government passed the Gold Standard Act.

The Gold Standard Act Stated:

“…the dollar consisting of twenty-five and eight-tenths grains (1.67 g) of gold nine-tenths fine, as established by section thirty-five hundred and eleven of the Revised Statutes of the United States, shall be the standard unit of value, and all forms of money issued or coined by the United States shall be maintained at a parity of value with this standard…”

Back then, the price of gold was set at only $20.67 per ounce (48.38 times less than $1,000)!

This week’s stock market free fall has not helped matters either, with the Dow Jones shedding another $152 of muscle today, bringing the value, as I write this, to $7,313.74.

“There really is no other place to go,” says Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. “People are scared.”

When falling house prices, stock market crashes, unemployment rates, recession, high deficits, fear of inflation, and the fact that the near future is unknown, tangible assets (not abstract investments) flourish.

Gold should continue to be a safe, hedge investment for the forseeable future. But if the recently passed stimulus package and the upcoming bail out impregnates our economy with Obama’s campaign-trail promise of “new hope”, be prepared to re-evaluate your gold holdings: life and the economy with it, can again experience a vast paradigm shift.

Platinum Prices Tied to the Big 3 Automakers?

Platinum fell below $800 an ounce on Thursday–a welcome sight for most in the fine jewelry industry, who consequently are able to lower platinum jewelry prices in hopes of motivating consumers to purchase such items as platinum wedding bands.

Platinum has exhibited nothing short of a bona fide crash in 2008, with platinum precious metal prices down 65% since its monumental peak of approx. $2,300 in March 2008. Platinum, today, hovers near $795 per ounce.

As a second generation jeweler and CEO of Apples of Gold Jewelry, I have been trying to fathom the mechanics of platinum’s elephantine decline. To the evident chagrin of precious metals investors, I have been outwardly gleeful to be able for the first time in six months to actually lower prices on jewelry, rather than raise them. Our goal, after all, at Apples of Gold, is to adhere to our value-based pricing philosophy which has helped boost jewelry sales in past years.

One recent timely factor of platinum’s fall from primordial heights: worries that trouble for American automakers will cut demand for platinum which is used in catalytic converters (motor vehicle pollution control devices). The economy, as we know, is intricately weaved in all of its multi-chromatic facets. Platinum prices fell, however, much earlier than the CEOs of the “Big 3″ flew their G4 private jets to Washington in the most surreal moment of 2008.

The biggest factor: Crude oil prices, a commodity that is economically and intricately tied to precious metals. Oil prices have declined 70% for the year since oil’s otherworldly 52 week high of $145 per barrel.  Oil hit a 5 year low today, closing at $43.67 per barrel, a low not seen since 2003. It’s noteworthy that gas prices have not yet fallen 70% since–but they have made large strides in the right direction.

A marginally rising U.S. dollar and falling oil prices are major contributors to falling precious metals, including gold, platinum, and palladium. The U.S. dollar is up approx. 18% vs. the Euro this year–all of which is contributing to precious metals’ decline (historically precious metals are inversely tied to the U.S. dollar as a hedge against inflation and instability in world markets).

Another major factor for platinum’s fall-out and perhaps the one that makes the most sense? Q1-Q2 platinum prices were simply too inflated at $2,300 per ounce and could not sustain long term jewelry demand. Platinum was far too expensive and out of the reach of most consumers. Although still a “metal for the masses”, platinum has become more attainable.

Personally, I feel much more comfortable with platinum prices in the $700 range. The lower the cost of raw materials, the lower jewelers are able to market their finished, designer jewelry pieces. With the economy in an untenable ball of fear, lower prices are a refreshing and welcome sight in the jewelry industry.

Apples of Gold has recently lowered prices on all of its platinum jewelry. And we hope this trend will continue.